The Population Projection Supports National Development

The President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono officially launched the 2010-2035 Indonesia Population Projection on Wednesday, 29 January 2014 and announced that Indonesia's population will be 305.6 million people in 2035 based on the projection. This important event was attended by the ministers of the Second United Indonesia Cabinet, the governors, and the mass media, which showed the government strong commitment to future development planning. How important is the population projection data for national development? Let’s take a look at the review of thattopic by the Director of Demography and Employment Statistics Razali Ritonga. Grand Design of National Development Population Projectionplays a prominentrole in making development planfor all sectors.The 2010-2035 PopulationProjection wasperformed by a think tank from Ministry of National Development Planning / Bappenas, the National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN), Ministry of Health, UNFPA, and the demographers. BPS (Statistics Indonesia) was in charge of methodology and data collection of the projection. It applied assumptions of nation’s future net birth rates, death rates, and migration. Population projectionisthe estimation employingscientific approaches that can be calculated directly. Will it be accurate? Not sure, because the population matters are dynamic and unpredictable. It is proved by the results difference between the 2000-2025 projection and the 2010 Population Census by 3.5 million, of which the total population in 2010 was projected 234 million but the real count disclosed 237.6 million population. Another evidence of the uncertainty is that the projection birth rate assumption for 2015 is 2.1 comparing with 2.6 of real rate in the year. Razali Ritonga described the population projection as a lighthouse that warns government of future population conditions. The projection can support the government to prepare for various potential issues on population. Therefore, the government must have a grand design of national development in all sectors and more concernaboutpopulation. The results of the projection can be used for long-term investment of government to achieve the grand design. Population Issues in the Future Population projection can show the various population problems to deal with. The most interesting issue is the demographic bonus. Demographic bonus is the condition when two productive age persons (ages 15-64) support an unproductive person (younger than 15 and older than 64). Indonesia has found such conditionsince 2012, andthe peak condition is predicted to occur in 2028-2030. “For national level the condition is simply an average figure, however it differs in each province or city. DKI Jakarta, for example, has earned the demographic bonus since the 1980s due to major migration of the productive age from outside to this city. It is fruitful for the migrant destination area in terms of rise in labor force, but not for the migrant origin area. Large number of labor force in the destination area must be well managed unless it will lead to increase in social issues and unemployment,” said the director. Razali commentedthat the demographic bonus is unique phenomenon that will happen once in every nation. “What is the advantage of it? The demographic bonus contributes to one third of the economic growth," added Razali. The other problem is aging population that will be major in this country by 2020. Aging population condition is when 10 percent of contry’s population aged 60 years and over. “This condition results in significant increase in pension and social benefit scheme that the government must cover,” he explained. Another problem is about composition of the population. In 2013, number of urban population exceeded the villagers. "This has already happened in this country, arising the negative impact on most development programs implemented in the urban areas," said Razali. This issue can only be identified by the population projection. It is obvious that the population projection serves as lighthouse for demographic issues and intervention. Furthermore, the projection data is used by BPS to estimate the umpleymont, poverty rate, per capita income, and so on. In the launching event the president also stated, “The population projection carries some challenging implications. I would like to appreciate all parties who have involved in accomplishing this publication and those who dedicate theirselvestocaring about the future Indonesia condition. Let’s spare a thought for our nation anddraw more new ideas.”